India’s growing influence on the global stage has raised important questions about its future role in geopolitics. As tensions rise, the concept of the Thucydides Trap—where a rising power challenges an established one—becomes increasingly relevant. Understanding this dynamic is key to navigating the current crisis and staying vigilant in the face of global shifts.
On August 15, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a significant statement from the Red Fort, which was not just a speech but a serious warning and a strategic message.
He clearly stated:
“As we grow stronger, both external and internal threats will increase. But we want to tell the world that India’s rise in power is not a crisis for the world but a boon for global welfare.”
This was not just a political statement, but a reference to one of the most important theories in international politics – the Thucydides Trap.
What is the Thucydides Trap?
Harvard University professor Graham Allison proposed the concept of the Thucydides Trap. It explains that whenever a rising power challenges an established power, it inevitably leads to conflict or war.
📌 History has witnessed 16 such instances in the past 500 years where an emerging power was perceived as a threat by an established power. Out of these, 12 resulted in war.
📌 The United States has intervened in over 30 different countries to safeguard its interests, either by military interference or by removing opposing leaders from power.
Why is India Facing a Growing Threat?
- Today, India is rapidly emerging as a global superpower.
- 7.8% GDP growth rate – making it one of the fastest-growing economies.
- Becoming a global manufacturing hub.
- If India and China together establish dominance, it could shift the entire global power balance.
According to the Thucydides Trap, global superpowers like the U.S., China, and others will try to prevent India’s rise at all costs.
📌 How?
- By engaging India in external conflicts – Provoking neighboring countries (Pakistan, China, Bangladesh) against India.
- By creating internal unrest and instability – Instigating communal riots, violent protests, and separatist movements.
- By weakening India’s economic stability – Ensuring that India does not become a global manufacturing hub.
Why is India Facing a Growing Threat?
- Today, India is rapidly emerging as a global superpower.
- 7.8% GDP growth rate – making it one of the fastest-growing economies.
- Becoming a global manufacturing hub.
- If India and China together establish dominance, it could shift the entire global power balance.
According to the Thucydides Trap, global superpowers like the U.S., China, and others will try to prevent India’s rise at all costs.
📌 How?
- By engaging India in external conflicts – Provoking neighboring countries (Pakistan, China, Bangladesh) against India.
- By creating internal unrest and instability – Instigating communal riots, violent protests, and separatist movements.
- By weakening India’s economic stability – Ensuring that India does not become a global manufacturing hub.
International Conspiracy: Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War
The Russia-Ukraine War is not just a territorial dispute but a carefully planned strategy by the U.S. and Western nations.
📌 The goal is to weaken Russia’s growing power and influence.
A similar strategy is being applied to India.
Government’s Strategy: Smartly Handling Every Conspiracy
The Indian government fully understands that global powers do not want India to rise.
📌 That’s why it is tackling every conspiracy with patience and wisdom, avoiding unnecessary confrontations.
👉 Shaheen Bagh protests were handled tactfully.
👉 The farmers’ protests were managed without excessive force.
👉 Manipur violence was prevented from escalating further.
Our Role: Stay Vigilant, Trust the Government
📌 India is going through a critical phase.
👉 We must not fall for propaganda and fake narratives.
👉 We must not support any forces trying to create instability.
👉 We must trust the government’s decisions and remain patient.
👉 We must educate people around us about these conspiracies.
Responsibility of 140 Crore Indians – But the Real Duty Lies with 100 Crore Patriots
India has a population of 140 crore, but among them, 20-25 crore people actively support anti-India forces.
Thus, the responsibility falls on 100 crore true Indians to stay aware and educate others about these challenges.
🚩 Remember, this is not just a political battle – this is a fight for India’s future.
🚩🇳🇪 Jai Bharat, Vandematram 🇳🇪
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