Yesterday, the AKTK channel highlighted two historical examples of caste- and ethnicity-based politics that tore nations apart: Lebanon and Rwanda. These examples reveal the dangers of India’s push for caste-based census politics.
Example 1: Lebanon’s Fall to Sectarian Politics
When Lebanon gained independence in 1943, its political system was based on the principle of “proportional representation based on population.”
The parliament reserved 54 seats for Muslims and 99 seats for Christians based on their respective populations.
Within Muslims, Shias were dominant, so the parliamentary speaker’s post went to Shias. Among Christians, the Maronites were dominant, so the presidency was assigned to them.
However, Muslims began bringing in Palestinians, deliberately altering the demographic balance. This triggered a civil war in Lebanon.
By 1989, when the war ended, the principle of “equal population, equal representation” was re-applied, with 64 seats each for Muslims and Christians in parliament.
Over time, Christians became a minority, and Lebanon transitioned into a Muslim-majority country.
Today, Maronite Christians and Shias have nearly disappeared, and Lebanon is effectively a Muslim nation.
Example 2: Rwanda’s Ethnic Nightmare
In 1918, Belgium colonized Rwanda, where three major ethnic groups lived:
Hutus (majority)
Tutsis (minority)
Twa (smallest group)
Belgium began applying the principle of “representation by population,” pitting ethnic groups against one another instead of uniting against colonial rule.
By 1962, when Rwanda gained independence, the ethnic tensions persisted.
In 1973, Hutu leader Juvénal Habyarimana became president.
In 1994, his plane was shot down, and the Hutus blamed the Tutsis, igniting one of history’s worst genocides:
800,000 people were killed.
1.5–2.5 lakh women were raped.
Parallels with India
Now, consider India’s situation:
Discussions about a Hindu caste census have begun, but there’s no proposal for a Muslim caste census.
In India, no single Hindu caste is larger than 20% of the Muslim population.
If caste-based representation becomes the norm, Muslims (20% of the population) could demand positions like the Prime Minister and Chief Justice of India, based on their population share.
This is not an exaggeration.
Before 1947, Muslims were given proportional representation, which ultimately led to India’s partition.
If Hindus begin dividing among castes, chaos similar to Lebanon and Rwanda could follow:
Upper castes vs. Dalits vs. OBCs vs. tribal groups.
Congress and other parties would remain silent, as their 20% Muslim vote bank would remain united.
Muslims would quietly watch Hindus destroy one another.
What Could Happen? A Step-by-Step Scenario
If Dalits and OBCs ally with Muslims under slogans like “Jai Bheem, Jai Meem,” they may work to eliminate upper castes.
Once upper castes are marginalized, the OBCs will become the next target, as Dalits and Muslims align.
Finally, Dalits will be left to face the Muslims alone.
History shows us this isn’t far-fetched:
Jogendra Nath Mandal, a Dalit leader, supported Pakistan’s creation and even became its first Law Minister. Yet, he and the Dalits he represented were betrayed and persecuted in Pakistan.
In the end, only Muslims remained dominant.
Lessons from History
Some may dismiss this as mere speculation. However, consider the timelines of other nations:
In Lebanon, tensions began in 1943 but escalated by 1989.
In Rwanda, Belgium started divisive policies in 1918, leading to a genocide by 1994.
In India, 1925 seemed stable, yet by 1947, the nation was divided.
Similarly, Kashmir seemed peaceful until 1985, but by 1990, Hindus were driven out.
Call to Action for Indian Youth
If we fail to recognize these patterns, India could face a similar fate. Here’s what we must do:
Reject caste-based politics.
Stay united as Hindus. Dividing by caste only strengthens those who wish to weaken us.
Learn from history—both our own and that of other nations.
Share this message widely. Awareness is the first step toward unity.
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